An article about the changes in the value of hands as the situation evolves.

Hand Dynamics

People like strength. What many players truly enjoy is getting a very strong hand and show their opponents what they are made of. I don’t remember that old amateur’s name in a WPT, who started trash talking Devilfish when he had AA. The pro was more than happy to pretend thinking for 10 or 15 secs and to throw his hand in the muck, his opponent’s holding being crystal clear. It’s like, we weather the storm all day long, so we try and enjoy every little bit of those occasions when we are sure to have the best of it.

Unfortunately, the value of every hand changes over time, and what was the best hand on a given betting round can become a huge underdog on the following one. This is not always easy to handle, and good players have many occasions to take the chips of the less skilled players. Let’s do a brief review of some frequent situations.

The Best Hand Preflop

At Holdem, we can consider two groups: the big cards, and the pairs. For both groups, the exact composition all depends on the depth of money, the number of players etc.

Big Cards

Big cards are generally comprised of an ace or a king and another paint; AK being the best one. If there is no pair out there, it is definitely the best hand preflop, and is therefore often worth a raise.

However, the odds for improving on the flop are as we know 2:1, which means big slick will miss the flop 2 times out of 3. On a missed flop, the hand suddenly look much less attractive; it is around 3:1 against any flopped pair.

Hand	Odds
Preflop
vs	The AKs is 1.2 to 1 underdog (offsuit 1.3)
vs	The AKs is 2 to 1 favorite (offsuit 1.8)
On Flop
vs Flop	The AK is 2.8 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 3 to 1 underdog

AK vs QQ pre and post flop (all-in situation)

Thus, the hand that looks so strong preflop is often subject to a big value drop on the flop, and if there is further betting on the flop it generally must fold in big bet poker. This is something beginners hate most. What the…, I had a monster and in 5 secs I hold a piece of crap? That’s why we often witness big bluffs from beginners with the big slick, and that’s also partially why many unwary walked back to Houston.

Pocket Pairs

As we know, pocket pairs are a slight favorite against big cards offsuit if everybody’s all-in preflop, and this is a coinflip against big suited cards. However, this is so because the AK got to see five cards. Consequently, the savvy player will often let his opponent actually miss the flop 2 times out of 3, and bet big there, when the AK has lost most of his value. The first point we can make is that is important to bet one’s hand when it is strong, so as to try and win the pot right there.

Hand	Odds
Preflop
vs	The JJ is 1.3 to 1 favorite
vs	The JJ is 2.4 to 1 favorite
On Flop
vs Flop	The JJ is 10.4 to 1 underdog

JJ vs KQ pre & post flop (all-in situation)

As a matter of fact, many pocket pairs are in a situation similar to that of big slick: they are strong hand preflop, but overcards are often a big favorite to come out, the exact odds depending on the rank of the pair. It is clear that a pair of six has few chances to make an overpair on the flop. The play is however different from big slick, depending on the texture of the flop; indeed, the pair can still be good. Yet, if it is not, it is generally a big underdog with as little as 2 outs sometimes.

Chances of flopping at least one overcard while not improving

The fact that the pair can still be ahead calls for good judgment, and the other side of the coin is that there are many mistakes to make there for the average player — especially with middle pocket pairs from 9s to jacks, that look real strong preflop. Against several opponents, it is less and less likely that the mid pair will hold up. Therefore, we come again to our first point: it is important to bet when one’s hand is still strong, so that one can win it right there or at least avoid facing too many opponents on the flop. If this is clearly not possible, it is sometimes best to try and see a cheap flop in the case we hit it hard. If this happens, having several opponents is a good thing, as we maximize the chances that someone will hit something and hang in there. If we can’t see a cheap flop, we must carefully estimate the implied odds, because paying a high price each time we try and hit a rather long shot can turn out to be unprofitable in the long run.

All-In

It appears that in both cases, big cards or pocket pair, we are an underdog to improve, and will often face difficult decisions on the later streets if called. This leaves us two choices: going all-in preflop, or trying to outplay our opponent from the flop. In the first case, we avoid the possible future mistakes and apply full pressure while our hand is strong. This is a Good Thing. Yet, if the money is too deep, or the pot too small, the danger is to give our opponent a cheap shot for our whole stack: he will call if he has us beat, and fold otherwise. He can hardly make a mistake, which is a Bad Thing. Many players don’t realize this, and move in with the jacks for instance, and end up being called by Queens or better.

The alternative is to play the flop, and be ready to bet without the goods fairly often. This requires good reading skills, and guts, so the good players will have an edge in this configuration. In addition, this gets the average player into the habit of moving his chips without a strong hand, which can often be exploited at some point by the good player.

Preflop Play

But even before the flop, hand values can change depending on the action. AQ is the classic example, as it is often unwise to call raises with it. A lot of players don’t see why, and call all the same, to find themselve in a very tight corner on the later streets - but the hand value had already shifted preflop.

Depending on whether raises are respected or not, the good player will vary his play to take advantage of his opponent’s tendencies. Coming over the top of a raiser that may well be rather weak is a good move if the initial raiser won’t hold on to his hand whatever, while ours is not that strong either (eg. 99). On the other hand, if he’s too timid, it is profitable to bluff him quite often by representing great strength. Just be sure who your customer is. The typical trick that generally works well is to raise often so as to get on our opponent’s nerves, and wait for him to take a stand with a nice-looking hand while we have a better one. We then effectively tricked him into failing to recognize the shift in hand values.