The Best Hand On The Flop

If you hit a favorable flop, you passed the first test - but nothing is over yet. Firstly, you may have been outflopped, and secondly, someone may draw out on you, or even worse, bluff you out of the pot on a scary card. Each type of hand has its own characteristics, as we are going to see.

Top Pair

Top pair can be outdrawn in four ways (not counting straights and flushes):

• someone can hit a bigger pair if an overcard comes;
• a lower split pair can hit two pairs or trips;
• an opponent with the same pair can hit his kicker to make two pairs;
• a pocket pair can hit a set;

Depending on the rank of the pair, some scenarii are more likely than others, and some remain very long shots.

With a pair of kings, an ace on the turn is about 11:1. With queens, jacks, tens and nines, the odds are respectively 4.9, 2.9, 1.9 and 1.3 to 1 against an overcard coming on the turn. Moreover, if no overcard falls when you have a low-rank pair, chances are that all the smaller cards create straight possiblities. A middle or low top pair is pretty vulnerable then, especially if you don’t have a high kicker; if you make top pair with AT on a T62 flop, at least the ace is not an out against you (provided you have the best hand on flop), and it can even enable you to trap an unwary with AK or AQ.

A lower split pair has five outs to improve against a higher pair: two outs for trips, and three for two pairs, hitting its kicker. A five-outer is 8.4:1 to improve on the turn - a rather longshot, but the implied odds can sometimes justify taking another card with middle or bottom pair, especially against someone who will pay you whatever with his pair of aces.

If your opponent has the same pair as you, with a lower kicker, he is dominated, and in a very bad shape. His main hope is either to hit his kicker (three outs), or that the board pairs so that both of you play only one card from your hand to tie. A three-outer is 14.6:1, so unless the top pair checks, the player behind is not going to have odds to chase - supposing he knows he is behind!

Finally, a low pocket pair has only two outs, and is a 22.5:1 underdog.

Chances of Top Pair being outdrawn on turn

All in all, the higher top pairs (AKQ, and to a lesser extent, J) are pretty strong holdings when the stacks are on the low side, since there is not enough implied odds to justify chasing. That’s why top pairs are often good hands in online sit-and-go and fast-structure tournaments. When the money is deeper, their chances decline, as the early betting is several order of magnitude lower than that of the later rounds.

Two Pairs

Two split pairs is obviously a nice hand to flop, since you are in position to win several extra chips from someone having top pair or an overpair. The higher pair can only improve to a better hand, but it has only five outs, plus the chances of the turn and the river pairing. The two pair remains a good 3:1 favorite, and is a pretty solid made hand. Its main enemies are the straight and flush draws, as the two pair does not have enough redraws to hurt the draws.

Set

The set is the best “non-miraculous” hand you can flop. No only can you be confident that it is statistically the best hand on all but the most dangerous flops, but you can win a big pot against someone who made two pairs, or even top pair top kicker. The hand is also much less static than the two pair, as it has many redraws in case it is not winning yet.

A set againt top pair is a 17:1 favorite, and against bottom two pairs, it is a virtual lock. However, a low set against top two pairs is not a lock yet: with four outs to the better full house, the two pairs is about 11:1 to improve on the turn, and 5:1 with two cards to come. Those are longshots, but the implied odds are probably gigantic too, so slowplaying should still be done with some caution.