Flop Match-ups

The following odds apply on the flop, again supposing at least one player is all-in (so each player gets to see two extra cards). These are the odds of winning, ties excluded. If there is a significant proportion of ties, odds are indicated for both players.

Hand	Odds
Overpair
vs Flop	The AA is 11 to 1 favorite
vs Flop	The AA is 4.4 to 1 favorite
vs Flop	The AA is 2.7 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AA is 8.5 to 1 underdog
Flush Draw
vs Flop	The 89 is 1.6 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The 89 is 2.1 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The 89 is 4.5 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The A8 is 1.2 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The A8 is 1.8 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The A8 is 2.9 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The 89 is 1.1 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 1.2 to 1 favorite
Overcards
vs Flop	The AK is 2.8 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 2.9 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The A8 is 6.4 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 14.2 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 30 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The AK is 1.1 to 1 favorite
Domination
vs Flop	The AK is 5.1 to 1 favorite The AQ is 7.3 to 1 underdog (4.3% tie)
vs Flop	The AK is 5.7 to 1 favorite The AK is 7.3 to 1 underdog (2.8% tie)
vs Flop	The AK is 27.2 to 1 favorite
vs Flop	The AK is 6.1 to 1 underdog
Straigth Draw
vs Flop	The 89 is 1.9 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The 89 is 2.3 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The 89 is 2.9 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	This is a even
Middle Pair
vs Flop	The A5 is 3.6 to 1 underdog
vs Flop	The Q5 is 4.2 to 1 underdog

Aces remain a strong favorite on the flop. Against two pairs, it is still a bit more than 5:2, which is bad but not dead yet. Two pairs are notorious for being difficult to improve (with only four cards left in the deck for the full house), while any other pair on the board gives a better two pairs to the aces - in addition to any ace making a set. Some players expect the two pair to be a monster favorite, but aces are tough to kill!

Flush draws are pretty frequent in Holdem, so you definitely should learn their odds. A typic nut flush draw (with the ace) is less than 3:2 against top pair. Remember, these odds are for two cards to come. Otherwise, they don’t hold obviously! In No Limit and Pot Limit, you will often meet a strong bet on the turn if you miss, and you will never get a chance to see the last card (unless you want to make a generally bad call).

It is naturally better if you got overcards along with the flush draw, since you can miss the flush but hit a good pair and win the pot. If you have two overcards, you even become a favorite!. Many casual players ignore this.

However, if bigger cards than yours are out in the same suit, for one you have one out less, and above all you run the risk of being outdrawn and lose to higher flush. About the worst that can happen is drawing almost dead, against a bigger draw. Beware, suited connectors fans… And eventually, a flush draw against a set or a two pairs is a good underdog, about 2:1 and 3:1 respectively, since even if you improve you can lose to a full house.

Two overcards are either a good dog against top pair or an overpair (about 3:1), but are a huge dog against anything stronger, as big as 30:1 against a set! Don’t do anything stupid with AK if you miss your flop, unless you don’t mind playing 30:1 shots. You only have an edge against a weaker high card, that is, nothing (yet).

As we saw, being dominated is very bad, and it gets worse on the flop. It is 7:1 whether you hit or both missed. If you hit your kicker, we have a terrible 50:1. However, if the dominated hand hits its kicker, now this is 6:1 against you. If the dominated hand makes two pair, top pair top kicker is likely to lose some good money in the hand, so watch for the implied odds.

Straight draws are similar to flush draws in many aspects, except for having only 8 outs instead of 9. Consequently, they are more often closer to 2:1. As for the flush draw, having overcards helps, and a straight draw plus two overcards against top pair is exactly even money.

Eventually, we have top pair plus overcard against middle pair, which is about 7:2, and 4.2:1 without the overcard.

Turn Match-ups are detailed on next page.