Learn the odds for the most frequent match-ups in Texas Holdem.

Holdem Odds

Knowing the odds of frequent situations is of paramount importance for the aspiring winning player. Playing it by ear will often be the source of common errors, since some results are not always intuitive. You can always count your outs and compare them to the cards left in the deck, but the same situations keep coming over and over, so remembering the most frequent encounters is pretty useful.

Preflop Match-ups

Here are the essential preflop match-ups. They assume at least one player is all-in; so the five cards of the board are seen. These are the odds of winning, ties excluded. If there is a significant proportion of ties, odds are indicated for both players.

Hand	Odds
Aces
vs	The AA is 4.6 to 1 favorite
vs	The AA is 4.5 to 1 favorite
vs	The AA is 3.5 to 1 favorite
vs	The AA is 6.4 to 1 favorite The AJ is 7.1 to 1 underdog (1.2% tie)
Kings
vs	The AJ is 2.5 to 1 underdog
vs	The AJ is 2.2 to 1 underdog
Ace King
vs	The AKs is 7.7 to 1 underdog The AA is 6.8 to 1 favorite (1.3% tie)
vs	The AK is 16 to 1 underdog The AA is 12.9 to 1 favorite (1.4% tie)
vs	The AKs is 2 to 1 underdog (offsuit 2.4)
vs	The AKs is 1.2 to 1 underdog (offsuit 1.3)
vs	The AKs is 2 to 1 favorite (offsuit 1.8)
vs	The AK is 3.5 to 1 favorite (offsuit 3.2) (4.5% tie)
vs	The AK is 1.7 to 1 favorite (offsuit 1.5)
Ace Middle Kicker
vs	The AT is 2.1 to 1 underdog (offsuit 2.5)
vs	The AT is 2 to 1 underdog (offsuit 2.4) The TT is 1.8 to 1 favorite (offsuit 2.1) (2% tie)
vs	The KQ is 1.7 to 1 underdog (offsuit 1.5)
vs	The K9 is 2 to 1 underdog (offsuit 1.8)
vs	The 89 is 1.6 to 1 underdog (offsuit 1.4)

The pair of aces is by far the strongest hand in Holdem. It is a big favorite against any other hand, including strong pairs. Mid suited connectors do better than other hands against aces, with all the straight and flush potential, but it’s still 3.5:1.

The pair of kings is a strong favorite against any hand without an ace. Otherwise, it’s still a good favorite (about 5:2) against an ace. Only the dreadful pair of aces is a favorite against kings - but when it happens kings are way behind.

AK is a strong hand preflop, even more so when it is suited (both the ace and the king are of the same suit). It is about even against pairs lower than kings. It is a good favorite against lower non-paired cards. It is behind against the pair of kings, and once again a terrible underdog against the pair of aces (though being suited helps a good deal).

The force of the AK is against non-paired hands with an ace or a king. An AQ vs an AK is said to be dominated. A dominated hand is a big underdog; its main outs are the 3 cards of the same rank as its kicker. The beauty of it is that many players overplay hands that are liable to be dominated. AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, and many other similar hands can end up dominated. This does not mean that you should not play them, but caution must definitely be exercised.

An ace against a pair bigger than the kicker is a “good” underdog, about 5:2. As we saw, even the powerful pair of kings is “only” a 5:2 favorite against the weak A2 offsuit. Many beginners expect a bigger edge, but eh, it’s still nice to have! Note that a pair of the same rank as the kicker is about the same as a bigger pair, but with some extra ties.

Eventually, there are the high/low vs mid/mid, high/mid vs mid/low, high/mid vs low/low situations. The high card is between a 3:2 and 2:1 favorite. Again, novices sometimes believe the edge to be bigger; but the fact is that there are not that much difference between two random hands preflop. Tournament players should keep this in mind…

From these match-ups, you can derive many other odds for similar situations. For instance, KQ vs KJ (domination), KT vs QQ (high card vs pair), and so on.

Be aware that suits often play a minor but non-negligible role in these match-ups, especially for underdogs who get an escape hatch. That’s what makes suited connectors attractive, since the connectors often end up as an underdog (hopefully in a multiway pot). The extra outs are then much welcome. Mike Caro even says that offsuit connectors should not be played in Limit Holdem, except from the blinds…

Likewise, high cards are more immune against playing four cards from the board (which leads to more ties). For instance, J9 dominates 79, but a board like 332Q9 leads to a split pot - whereas K9 would win.

In addition, blocking straight draws helps the favorite: AA vs QJo is 6:1, while AA vs 89o is “only” 4.8:1, thanks to the extra straight possibilities.

Flop Match-ups are detailed on next page.