How to try and win without the best hand.

The Bluff

Bluffing is often thought to be the predominent skill in poker. While it plays an important role, especially in Big bet poker (Pot Limit and No Limit structures), there are many, many more skills to playing good poker. Yet, if you never bluff or if you are poor at it, you probably miss a lot of potential gains, and you are prevented from moving to higher limits, where bluffing will become even more latent.

Here’s the definition:

A good bluff is a sequence of checks, bets or raises indicating to your opponent that he is probably behind and persuading him to fold often enough.

There are several points to note.

Firstly, the threat must be concrete if you want your opponent to believe it. Simply making a strange big bet at some point to represent “any strong hand” is not enough. What hands exactly do you represent? For the bluff to be effective, the represented hand should be strong enough that you opponent would be way behind if he were to call. Possible straigths and flushes are often used to launch a bluff. If your opponent has a good redraw, it will be more inclined to call, given that even if you do have the hand you represent, he is not dead yet. In this regard, the bluffs at the river cut out on the possibility of redraws, and can be fairly effective if used appropriately.

Secondly, a good bluff is usually not an action limited to a single bet or raise. Like good lies, good bluffs need some kind of evidence that you are telling the truth. The whole story must be consistent - otherwise you won’t convince anyone. That’s why we used the word sequence. In poker, your actions indicate to some extent what range of hands you can be holding. Some hands usually want an early raise, others would go for the check-raise, some others would try to get a cheap showdown, etc. Playing the previous betting rounds like you have a draw, and then making a big bet when the draw is not completed, will look very suspicious to your opponent. If you had a made hand, wouldn’t you have bet more aggressively up to then so as to make your opponent pay for his possible draw? And now, what would be the use of this big bet, given that a busted draw will not call? A good opponent will recall your previous actions, and probably be much more tempted to keep you honest if something doesn’t add up.

Thirdly, a bluff doesn’t have to show a 100% success rate. Remember, what matters is the odds of winning versus the pot odds. Here, the former is often resumed to the odds of your opponent folding - but even if he will call, say, 50% of the time, your bluff is still perfectly correct if the pot odds give you 2:1.

This is where things get tricky, since estimating the odds of him calling can be quite a difficult exercice. You must have an idea about his overall style, his propension to call, his bluffing skills (since a good bluffer will be able to spot possible bluffs from his opponents), etc.

Based on these criteteria, you should carefully pick the best bluffing opportunities, and know why you try a bluff when you do.

Sometimes, a bluff could be possible, but it doesn’t rate to be the best option. This for instance happens when you have a hand that already might be the best. If bluffing would make your opponent fold hands that you have beat, and would not deter a call from hands that beat you, bluffing will not help you win more, but you will lose more when you are called. Just show your hand down, and keep the bluffs for situations where you have nothing to show - and then, if it can be effective enough. Don’t start bluffing every time you have nothing!

The Semi-Bluff

The semi-bluff is a bluff launched when you are still behind, but have several outs that could give you a winning hand in case you are called. This is often done with good draws: you don’t have a made hand yet, but if you are called, you still can hit your straight or flush. A good semi-bluff enables you to win more often than the times you hit your draw, as you win the pot right here when your opponent folds.

Do not get carried away with your draw though, and don’t launch sloppy semi-bluffs just because you still have outs. If the bluff part of the play is not effective enough (that is, your opponent won’t fold often enough), then you are simply increasing the price of your draw, possibly to the point of losing money with the play.

Even worse, your opponent can counter your semi-bluff by bluffing too, and unfortunately for you this can be very effective; are you really willing to throw good money after bad without any hand yet, remote chances of improving (even with two cards to come, your opponent will cut your odds on the next card), against an opponent who shows a good deal of strength?

And last but not least, you have to be careful about the possibility of hitting your draw and still lose. Straights and flushes are vulnerable to full houses, straights also lose against flushes, and both straights and flushes can lose against a better straight or flush. You may even be drawing dead, without any chance of winning. Playing the draw would already be very bad for you, but semi-bluffing in these circumstances would be devastating.

That being said, semi-bluffing is an important weapon to have in your arsenal, just make sure to use it with discretion.

How Many Opponents

We assumed so far a single opponent, but naturally it won’t always be the case. Making an opponent fold is one thing, forcing several enemies to do so is much more difficult. The difficulty doesn’t increase linearly, though.

Bluffing at one opponent is often a reasonable thing to do. If he folds, you instantly get the pot, which is often good enough to justify the try.

Trying to bluff two opponents is more hazardous, but you still get decent chances if you can pick your situations (eg. innocuous flops against opponents who haven’t showed strength). In addition, your two opponents can fear to play back at two opponents, which can cut down on the number of counter-bluffs, even if one of them is suspicious.

Launching a bluff at three opponents is already dangerous business. Someone is likely to get something he likes enough to call, and several checks don’t mean nobody has anything. The check-raise is a real possibility. If someone stands out and bet against several opponents, he is not very likely to bluff. If you consider a semi-bluff, someone can bet out with a better draw, which would badly hurt you - if you are not drawing dead.

Trying to bluff more than three opponents is usually foolhardy.